Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

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NFL

November 5, 2013

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The Miami Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six appearances on Monday Night Football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also 1-5 versus the number the last six times they've played on MNF.

It’s a Florida battle that looks like another Monday Night Football dud.


Point spread:
Dolphins opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and matchup report)


OddsShark.com computer says: 18.0-11.9 Dolphins


Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins started 3-0 this season, then lost four games in a row. Now, after Thursday night's overtime victory against Cincinnati, the Fins are .500 at 4-4. The suspension of OL Richie Incognito might provide addition-by-subtraction, and going against a Tampa team that can't get out of its own way provides a chance to start another winning streak.


Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Tampa Bay may be winless, but it's had several shots at victory, including last week, when the Bucs led 21-0 at Seattle before eventually losing 27-24 in overtime. Rookie QB Mike Glennon owns an 8/3 TD/INT ratio since taking over for the departed Josh Freeman, and hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games.

Mainly, there are negative trends on both fronts in a matchup that doesn’t look great on paper.


Smart Pick

The Odds Shark NFL computer is predicting Miami to prevail and cover in a low-scoring affair. By the numbers these two teams are fairly similar; the Dolphins own a short edge on offense, while Tampa ranks a little better on defense. But the Bucs are coming off an excruciating loss out in Seattle, while Miami will be working on a couple extra days off. Give the points and go with the Fish.


Trends:

Miami 1-5 ATS past six Monday night games

Tampa Bay 1-5 ATS past six Monday night games

Dolphins 1-6 ATS vs. Bucs since 1982

Bucs lost seven straight at home (1-5-1 ATS)

Bucs 5-18-1 ATS as home dog since October 2006


Note
: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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The Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in their preseason opener Saturday. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dolphins vs. Buccaneers odds, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Dolphins are expected to have a new-look offense in 2022, as WR Tyreek Hill comes over from the Kansas City Chiefs. However, new coach Mike McDaniel hinted that QB Tua Tagovailoa might not play Saturday.

In addition, T Terron Armstead, CB Xavien Howard and OLB Melvin Ingram have been ruled out for the exhibition opener. Hill is also unlikely to play.

For the Buccaneers, future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady is away from the team tending to a personal matter, and he is not expected to be with the team for a chunk of the preseason. It’s uncertain if new WRs Russell Gage and/or Julio Jones will be in the lineup.

The backups for the Bucs are QBs Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Trask and Ryan Griffin.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:09 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Dolphins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Buccaneers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -1.5 (-108) | Buccaneers +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 31.5 (O: -103 | U: -117)

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Dolphins at Buccaneers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 17, Buccaneers 9

Money line

The DOLPHINS (-120) are likely to be without their 2 biggest offensive weapons, Tua and Hill. Still, they have QB Teddy Bridgewater as the backup, and plenty of depth with RBs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin. Back the deeper offense, and that’s easily Miami in this game, even with some veterans resting.

Against the spread

The DOLPHINS -1.5 (-108) are slightly cheaper if you want to lay the points, and really if Miami wins, they’re likely to do so by more than1.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 31.5 (-117) is the lean, but go lightly.

The Dolphins are likely to run plenty, and not put Bridgewater and the pass offense into downfield mode. The Bucs have a mish-mash group of has-beens and never-will-bes at quarterback, and the offense will likely be a mess in the opener. Look for a low score here from both sides.

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